US forces enter Iran by December 31?
01What is this market?
This market asks whether US military troops will physically set foot inside Iran's borders by year-end. Intel operatives and diplomats don't count.
02Why is it trending now?
Tensions are surging following escalating US strikes on Iran-backed forces and ongoing nuclear standoff. Talks of military options against Iran are at a multi-year high in Washington.
03What does 78% mean?
A 77% chance means markets strongly expect US boots on Iranian soil this year — roughly 3-in-4 odds, suggesting analysts see conflict escalation as likely, not just possible.
04Price history
Volume spiked to $646K in 24hrs, signaling sharp trader interest likely tied to recent regional escalation events.
05Key takeaways
Watch for US strikes on Iran or special ops raids. Any confirmed ground incursion would trigger Yes resolution. Diplomatic breakthroughs could reverse odds.
AI generated on 3/30/2026
News That Moved This Market
AI matchedトランプのイラン石油獲得方針は年内の軍事介入可能性を示唆
トランプの対イラン強硬政策は年内の軍事行動リスク増加
イラン緊張激化で年内の米軍介入可能性が上昇
イラン軍事的緊張で米軍進攻の長期リスク上昇
供給中断リスク高まりで、イラン進攻の地政学的リスク増加
Until close
7d Trend
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