US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
01What is this market?
Will the US and Iran officially announce a mutual halt to direct military hostilities before April 30? Requires public confirmation from both governments.
02Why is it trending now?
Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, nuclear talks, and reported backchannel diplomacy in 2025, markets are pricing a non-trivial chance of a formal ceasefire amid fears of direct military conflict.
03What does 31% mean?
At 32%, markets see roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a formal, publicly announced US-Iran ceasefire by month's end — elevated but still below even odds.
04Price history
Volume spiked to $453K in 24 hours, suggesting a major news catalyst recently shifted trader sentiment significantly.
05Key takeaways
Watch for official statements from Washington and Tehran. Any informal pause or backroom deal won't qualify — only a public, mutual announcement counts.
AI generated on 3/30/2026
7d Trend
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