US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
01What is this market?
Will the US and Iran officially announce a mutual halt to direct military hostilities by April 7, 2025? Both sides must publicly confirm the agreement.
02Why is it trending now?
Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated amid Trump administration pressure campaigns, nuclear deal negotiations, and proxy conflicts in the Middle East, driving speculation about direct confrontation or diplomacy.
03What does 10% mean?
At 10%, markets see a ceasefire as very unlikely — roughly the odds of a coin flip going heads twice in a row. No active US-Iran war currently exists to cease.
04Price history
Market opened low and has remained under 15%, reflecting no credible signs of imminent direct US-Iran military conflict or formal negotiations.
05Key takeaways
With no active US-Iran war, a formal ceasefire by April 7 is nearly impossible. Watch for any surprise military escalation or diplomatic breakthrough.
AI generated on 3/30/2026
Until close
7d Trend
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